Shockwaves!

Browns Fire Defensive Coordinator

Tony Grossi has just reported that the Cleveland Browns have fired defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. This is a stunning move that will surely send out shockwaves through the Cleveland Browns community.

The Browns finished the season almost dead last (30th) in the NFL in total defense, in a bit of a reversal of performance level from past years. Not that the Browns defense has ever been stellar, but the defense was believed to be the strength of this team coming into the season. That simply wasn’t the case, as many players on the defense seemed to regress this season.

Apparently, that’s all it took to make Grantham the fall man for this season’s shortcomings in terms of making the post season. No successor has been named yet. Grossi writes,

“It’s a stunning descent for Grantham, who was given a two-year contract extension in June.

At the time, the youthful Grantham was viewed as a potential in-house replacement for coach Romeo Crennel if the 2007 season went down the sewer. In preseason, Grantham’s television interviews were closely monitored by the Browns’ brass to determine whether he “projected” as a head coach.

Those tentative plans went awry when two surprises occurred. Grantham’s defense was the unit that tanked and Crennel supervised the Browns to a 10-6 season.

In the third season under Grantham, the defense allowed 402 points (fourth-most in Browns history) and 5,753 total yards (second-most). It finished 21st in points after hovering at the bottom of the league rankings most of the season and was 30th in total yards allowed.”

My initial reaction was that this feels premature. The Browns are coming off their most successful season overall, depending on how you look at it, since either the 2002 season or since the Browns’ return in 1999. Despite the defense’s horrible rankings, they did seem to start turning things around towards the end of the season. Grantham had to deal with an aging, weak, and thin defensive line to begin with, and that only got worse with injuries. Also, I am a huge proponent of consistency within organizations.

All that being said, though, there’s no denying the defense has been on a downward trend every year since Grantham took over. His earlier successes were simply overcome by the total failures of his unit as the season progressed. It will be interesing to watch who emerges as the lead candidates to take over the position.

UPDATE:

After writing this post, I came across a couple stories with further background information on this move and the apparent rift that developed in Berea between RAC and Grantham. You can read John Taylor’s story here for the first look at the behind the scenes side of what happened here and you can read Barry McBride’s follow up story on the topic here. Both are excellent reads and should be looked at by anyone who is curious what exactly happened in this bizarre scenario.

 

Savage Signings

Browns GM Says Extensions Coming

Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported today that GM Phil Savage is working on a contract extension for head coach Romeo Crennel (is it just me, or does Mary Kay seem to be much more on the ball than Tony Grossi these days?). There was no mention of length of the possible extension, but Savage is open to options. As Mary Kay writes,

“The Browns plan to extend the contract of coach Romeo Crennel, as early as the next few days, Browns general manager Phil Savage said during his post-season news conference today in Berea.

“We have every intention of doing something with Romeo and we’ll do right by him,” said Savage. “Hopefully it will be addressed in the next few days. If not, then in the next few weeks.”

Savage said he’s open to options, including a multi-year extension. Crennel is under contract for two more seasons.”

On its surface, this would seem to squash my conspiracy theory that Rob Chudzinski is being groomed to eventually take over the reigns from Crennel. RAC still needs a lot of improvement as a tactical coach, but he’s proven that his connections to his players are his strong point. These players will play their hearts out for Crennel, and you can’t say that for all coaches. RAC is still growing, still relatively inexperienced as a head coach, and for now that’s fine. But with an extension, the pressure will be on. The Browns must show improvement next season and anything short of a spot in the playoffs will be totally unacceptable.

I’m also going to go out on a limb and keep my Chudzinski theory alive as well. Crennel is currently under contract for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. I have a funny feeling the Browns will give Crennel a 2 year extension through 2011, which also happens to be the year Chudzinski’s recent extension runs out. But alas, at the end, perhaps it’s just wishful thinking on my part.

The other newsworthy story in the article is that Savage is also planning on signing DA to an extension. According to Savage,

“We have a couple of different options for Derek. We’re more apt to want to do something with Derek that would take him beyond the 2008 season. We want to go into next season with both of our quarterbacks, plus Ken Dorsey intact. We want to make sure we stay strong at that position for at least one more year.”

Um…..what?!? A couple thoughts on this. First, why are you more apt to do something with DA beyond 2008? There’s no need to. You have all the options in the world. Why eliminate all the options on your own? Why not let this play out and see if anyone makes you any offers for DA? As I have said before, the smart thing to do is to max tender DA for next season. If someone wants to give up their 1st and 3rd round picks for him, you consider it. If you don’t want the picks, you match the offer. If after 2008, you still want DA and you can’t immediately re-sign him, you can use your franchise tag on him. I do not understand what the rush is and why Savage feels the need to forfeit all of his options.

The second thing that comes to mind is when Savage says ‘We want to go into next season with both of our quarterbacks, plus Ken Dorsey intact. We want to make sure we stay strong at that position for at least one more year.’ Well, under the plan I outlined, you do precisely that. That’s the beauty of it…you can go into next season with the same group of QBs if you want, but at least it leaves you with flexibility as it continues to play out. There’s no need whatsoever to rush this.

I will say this, though. Phil Savage has earned the benefit of the doubt. He’s made so many great moves since taking over and he has the team heading in the right direction. So for now, he’s gets this common courtesy from me. I will wait and see what happens. Savage is a better talent evaluator than I am, and he must see something more in DA than I do that is causing him to want to sign DA now before his price tag is driven up too high.

One final thought on this, though. If DA really is signed to a long term extension, then Brady Quinn better go on the trade block quickly. The Browns gave up too much to move back into the first round last year to take Quinn to get nothing in return. I talked a while back about some teams who may have an interest in upgrading their QB, and most of those still hold. There will be some teams that would consider taking Quinn and giving up a little something in return. Savage said after day one of the draft last year that if the Browns were ever going to turn the corner, that draft was going to be the key component. Well, it’s looking like that’s the case, only not entirely in the way he thought. Rather than becoming the franchise QB he envisioned, Quinn is becoming little more than trade value riding on the Browns’ bench.

I’m definitely in favor of keeping the options open at QB for now, but if DA is signed long term, that changes everything. I understand injuries can happen in the NFL and having a viable backup is invaluable, but the team just simply gave up too much for Quinn for him to just be a backup. So I will defer to Savage’s better judgment for now, but I am making it known that I am very, very skeptical of this move.

 

The First Of Many

Browns O-Lineman Heading To Hawaii

The Cleveland Browns’ rookie sensation, left tackle Joe Thomas has been served a bit of justice. Despite being robbed of his rightful spot on the Pro Bowl team by both voters and peers alike, despite being regarded as one of the 2 or 3 best left tackles in the entire NFL, Thomas is still getting his rightful spot on the AFC squad after all.

Tackle Jason Peters of Buffalo is injured and cannot play, and so Thomas, the first alternate, has been called up to take his spot. Thomas is the first Browns’ lineman to make the Pro Bowl since 1987.

For his part, Thomas is obviously excited, saying:

“I am thrilled to be selected for the Pro Bowl and for the opportunity to play with some of the best players in the NFL. I understand that being selected as an alternate means that someone else could not attend, so I wish the best for Jason Peters. But this is truly an honor and I will do my best to represent the Browns and the AFC in Hawaii.”

Joe Thomas becomes the third member of the Browns to make the Pro Bowl this season, joining Braylon Edwards and Josh Cribbs.

Congrats to JT on a much deserved spot on the Pro Bowl roster. I’m not alone in feeling this is just the first of many, many Pro Bowls in the young man’s career. As long as his production stays at this level, he will be a staple in the Pro Bowl for years to come.

 

Chud Staying Put

Browns Extend Offensive Coordinator’s Contract, Chudzinski Declines Ravens’ Interview Offer

In what can only be described as a most fortunate turn of events, the Cleveland Browns have given offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski an extension, and Coach Chud has turned down the Baltimore Ravens’ request to interview him for their vacant head coaching position.

The story appears in the Baltimore Sun, where Jamison Hensley writes,

“Cleveland offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski won’t interview for the Ravens’ head coaching vacancy today because he got a contract extension from the Browns, a league source said.

Chudzinski joins Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz and New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coaches who have removed themselves from the Ravens’ list.”

This is great news for the Cleveland Browns organization. Not only does it solidify the Browns’ offensive system for the next year, it also gives the Browns the option of handing the team over to Coach Chud in 2 years should they decide that Romeo Crennel is not the man for the job. Now that Coach Chud is going to be sticking around, it should be interesting to see if the Browns extend Coach Crennel’s contract.

Chudzinski, a native of Toledo, Ohio who grew up rooting for the Browns, could be in a situation where the team is grooming him to be their next head coach, similar to the Jason Garrett situation with the Dallas Cowboys. Two years ago Coach Chud turned down a chance to call plays for LaDainian Tomlinson to come home to the Browns, despite the fact he would be joining an offense that was inept at best and a coach who was expected to be on the hot seat by week 5. Instead, he revamped the offense and turned it into one of the NFL’s elite offenses, even despite the fact he was using a discarded QB whom the Browns picked up off waivers. Chudzinski has shown a great mind for football and a vision that is neccessary to be a successful coach. So it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Browns are looking to eventually hand the team over to Chudzinski, and that could be why he turned down the Ravens’ interview offer.

Or else he simply turned it down because it was the decent thing to do, knowing full well he wouldn’t accept the job and/or he was an outsider at best in the odds of winning the job. But a small part of me still can’t help but think, why not interview? It would be good practice for when he’s ready to really interview for jobs. It would seem he has every reason in the world to interview if his aspirations are to someday be a head coach somewhere else. But if the Browns’ organization’s internal plans are to eventually have Chudzinski take over the team, then there would be no reason to interview.

Either way, this is a good day for the Browns, and for now we can leave all speculation behind. For once, the Browns look to be returning their coaching staff in tact from the previous season…a sign of cohesiveness and stability that has long been lacking in this organization.

 

Jumping On The Coaching Carousel

One coach extending stay, one coach leaving?

It hasn’t taken long, but the coaching carousel has begun to spin, and a couple of the Browns coaches are on the ride.

According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Plain Dealer, the Ravens will be interviewing Browns offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski for their vacant head coaching position, while the Browns will be looking to extend head coach Romeo Crennel’s for up to possibly 3 seasons.

I said in my last post that we should expect Coach Chud to have an interview or two, so this is no big surprise. I also predicted that he would be unlikely to get a job quite yet, and I still 70% believe that, although I feel like Coach Chud might be exactly the kind of candidate the Ravens are looking for.

Regardless, you gotta believe guys like Rex Ryan and Jason Garrett will be the top candidates for this job. Ryan for his familiarity with the franchise and Garrett for his experience. He has been groomed as a head coach candidate for several years now, and is believed to be one of the brightest young coaches in the NFL. He would seem to be more head coach-ready than Coach Chud at this point in time. Other candidates for the job, according to Cabot, include Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz.

Here’s GM Phil Savage’s take on the situation:

“Obviously with the turnaround we’ve had, and with the way the offense played, Rob is going to be sought after by a lot of teams either this year or in years to come. . . When you have success you have to anticipate losing your good people.”

The only thing that bothers me about this is the thought of Coach Chud leading the hated Ravens. I really like Chudzinski a lot, and I think he is going to definitely be successful wherever he coaches. I just hope that it is not with the Baltimore Ravens.

As for the Romeo situation, Cabot writes:

“Meanwhile, the Browns have begun talks on a three-year contract extension for coach Romeo Crennel, said Joe Linta, the coach’s agent.

Crennel, who went 10-6 this season, has two years remaining on his five-year deal.

“The talks were very positive,” Linta said. “I really believe [Browns owner] Randy Lerner will want to make Romeo the face of the franchise for the next five years. Hopefully we can work toward that end.”

Linta said an extension for Crennel, who earned consideration for coach of the year this season after the Browns went from 4-12 last year to 10-6, will send a great signal to potential free agents that there’s stability in this franchise.”

I think this is a great proactive move by the Browns. Look, we all know Romeo is far from the best coach in the NFL, and he had more than his fair share of really bad moves this year (remember the double time out challenge at Pittsburgh???), but as I said in my season recap, stability is the key to any successful franchise. I can’t help but think of the way the Steelers showed so much patience with Bill Cowher when he was a young coach with them. He made his fair share of dumb coaching moves, but the Steelers stuck with him, kept extending his contract, demonstrated franchise stability, and built success around it. I feel like that’s the ultimate model of a winning franchise, and I have no shame in saying I hope the Browns emulate the Steelers’ business style.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the Crennel talks, but I once again feel like the Browns are starting to do things the right way. It feels crazy writing these words in describing the Browns, but it also feels good. So mark this website as being in favor of this decision by the Browns. You can hold me to it.

 

New Year For The Browns Too

Browns Look To Build On 2007 To Bring Success In 2008

Well, it’s hard to believe it has come to this. I wasn’t expecting to write this column so soon. I expected the Browns to have at least one game in 2008. But alas, (no) thanks to Jim Sorgi’s shortcomings as a QB, the Browns are done. No playoffs this year. So what are we to make of this 2007 season? It’s hard to have any bad feelings about a team that went 10-6. This team exceeded all expectations, including our own, and made this one of the most memorable and most fun seasons in recent history.

Before I get too far ahead, though, I want to say one thing about the way this shaped out. Watching that Tennessee team barely beat the Colts’ reserves to get into the playoffs and knock the Browns out was a very hollow and uneasy feeling. It just didn’t feel right. You’re going to hear many people say ‘hey, it’s the Browns’ own fault….they should have just taken care of their own business’. Of course that’s true. Nobody is going to deny that the Browns should have beat a pathetic Raiders team, they should have held their huge lead over Pittsburgh, and they shouldn’t have let themselves fall so far behind a struggling Cincinnati team. The Browns had their chances. The thing is, though, the Browns never had the luxury of playing anybody’s backups. Even when the Colts starters were briefly in the game, it was quite clear that outside of Bob Sanders, nobody cared about playing well at all. This was a huge advantage for the Titans and made for an uneven playing field in the playoff race. I don’t know if there’s a way to fix this, and so I guess this is just meaningless complaining on my part….but I will always feel like this team was unfairly kept out of the playoffs.

None the less, 2007 feels like a good season. I would be remiss, however, if I didn’t mention that at the end of the day, these moral victories for our Cleveland teams are starting to get old. We’ve spent so much time talking about how great this past year has been for the Indians, Cavaliers, and Browns. For sure, all three teams gave us something to be proud of. But when do we stop feeling happy just to be there….happy just to be relevant again….and when do we start demanding just a little more from our teams? Would the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Cowboys, Packers, etc. be happy to be 10-6 and not in the playoffs? Would they be waxing poetic about how much fun the season was? Of course not. That’s the power of context. Somewhere along the line, teams like the Patriots and Colts who had been long suffering franchises similar to the Browns turned that corner and created a standard of winning that permeates throughout the players, coaches, front offices, franchises, and cities. So when I look back at 2007, rather than be too excited about it or too negative about it, I will mainly just hope to look at it as the first step….that monumental season in which things tipped and the team turned that corner and built on it and took the next step to becoming a true winning franchise in the NFL.

So with that in mind, lets take a look ahead and see how this team is going to look in 2008 and how this franchise can go from a 10-6 team to an 11 to 13 win team.

Coaches

Head coach Romeo Crennel will be closely watched. Speculation still runs deep that the Tuna is going to bring RAC to Miami to head up the rebuilding efforts. Obviously RAC is very close to Parcells and the thought of working for him has to be an intriguing idea. But why would you want to start over from scratch? You’ve weathered the storm in Cleveland and now have a team on the brink of winning. Outside of working for his mentor again, there are no other compelling reasons to go to Miami and try to build from a team with no identity. From Cleveland’s point of view, you have to want RAC back. I have been openly critical of RAC’s coaching all year. I have at many points felt like the Browns were winning in spite of his coaching rather than because of his coaching. With that said, though, there’s still no price you can put on continuity. Ask San Diego about that. The thought of having to start over with a new system is a frightening thought. Romeo is still a first-time head coach and he’s learning on the job. The players absolutely love the guy and they play for him. Just for the sake of speculation, should RAC really follow the Tuna to Miami, what would the Browns do? I suspect they would try to lure Bill Cowher back, although unless they were to give him GM powers as well, Cowher probably won’t be coming out of retirement this soon, and getting rid of Phil Savage would be unacceptable. The Browns might try to turn the team over to Marty Schottenheimer and let him bring his winning identity to the team. Perhaps they would promote from within to try to maintain as much continuity as possible. In that case, Todd Grantham and Rob Chudzinski would be the lead candidates, with Chud likely being the first option. In the end, though, I fully expect RAC to be the head coach in 2008. I would like to see RAC work on his clock management skills, including using more discretion in wasting time outs and challenges, and I would like to see him work on team discipline. There were just far too many penalties on this team this season.

A year ago, defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was considered to be one of the real up and coming coordinators in the NFL. His name was mentioned in whispers as an outside head coaching candidate. The Browns’ defense looked like the only respectable aspect of the team. We fans tried to justify the defense’s poor statistics by rationalizing that many of the yards given up seemed to come late in games when the defense was gassed because the Browns’ offense was unable to stay on the field. However, this season, the defense was shown for what it truly was…..a unit totally unable to generate consistent pressure on opposing QBs and totally unable to consistently slow down the running game. RBs routinely topped 100 yards against this defense, a defense that ranked dead last in the NFL. A good portion of this blame has to fall at Grantham’s feet. In no way should he be fired yet, but he needs to figure out a way to get more out of the defense in 2008, or else his time will be very limited beyond 2008.

On the offensive side of the ball, coordinator Rob Chudzinski came over from San Diego this season and instantly developed an offense that looked like a real NFL offense. They showed a lot of motion before the snap, mixed up formations nicely, and had a great blend of passing and running plays. The offense exuded confidence and they put up points in a big time way. The success of this unit vaulted Coach Chud into the hierarchy of head coaching candidates. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he was interviewed for a job or two this offseason, but I would be surprised if he actually landed any of them. Another year or two like this one, though, and Chud will be a head coach somewhere. Not yet, though, as I suspect Coach Chud will still be the offensive coordinator in 2008. The main thing I think for Coach Chud to work on would be staying true to the run longer into the games. On a couple occasions this season the Browns seemed to abandon the run way too early. I’d like to see that change a bit in 2008. Otherwise, a great job by Coach Chudzinski this season and I see no reason to doubt the same will stand for next year.

Overall, the coaching staff has a good chance of coming back completely intact next season. This will be key in maintaining the continuity that will ideally lead to even further success next season.

Offense

Here’s a look at the 2007 team, with their 2008 salaries.

• QBs
  • Derek Anderson (restricted free agent)
  • Brady Quinn ($1.43 million; signed through 2010)
  • Ken Dorsey (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
• RBs
  • Jamal Lewis (free agent)
  • Jason Wright ($927,000; signed through 2008)
  • Jerome Harrison ($445,000; signed through 2009)
• FBs
  • Lawrence Vikers ($445,000; 2009)
• WRs
  • Braylon Edwards ($931,000; signed through 2009)
  • Joe Jurevicius ($1.9 million; signed through 2009)
  • Tim Carter (free agent)
  • Joshua Cribbs ($520,000; signed through 2012)
  • Travis Wilson ($445,000; signed through 2009)
• TEs
  • Kellen Winslow ($1.0175 million; signed through 2010)
  • Steve Heiden (terms undisclosed; signed through 2011)
  • Darnell Dinkins ($605,000; signed through 2008)
• OL
  • Joe Thomas ($1.45 million + $3 million roster bonus ($3.11 million cap charge); signed through 2012)
  • Eric Steinbach (approx $7.5 million; signed through 2013)
  • Hank Fraley (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
  • Ryan Tucker ($2.3 million; signed through 2009)
  • Kevin Shaffer ($2.9 million ($8 million cap charge if he is cut or traded in this offseason; signed through 2012)
  • LeCharles Bentley (restructured terms undisclosed; signed through 2008)
  • Seth McKinney (free agent)
• K
  • Phil Dawson ($950,000; signed through 2009)

The Browns are fortunate to have a lot of stability in this off season. The key free agents on offense are only DA and Jamal Lewis. I’ve discussed in the past what I think the Browns should do with DA this offseason. I am of the belief that giving him a long term contract right now is crazy. I like the way the Cowboys handled their situation with Tony Romo, showing great patience in waiting until they were 100% certain Romo was going to be the QB they thought he was before signing him to the long term deal. The Browns should take note of how that was handled. In terms of improving this team in the future, they have to think about getting back into the first round of the draft this year. So why not dangle DA out there and see if anyone bites? The Browns can still match any offers if they deem the draft pick too low. They hold all the power in this situation and they need to flex that power and look at all options.

As for RB, it sounds like Jamal Lewis will be back, and I think that’s a good thing. He was so strong for this team this year, rushing for 1,304 yards (only Jim Brown himself has rushed for more yards in a Browns uniform) and developing into a powerful leader for the offense. It’s important to bring him back. But as I said before the holiday break, the Browns have to keep an eye on their future as well. Jamal is getting dangerously close to the drop off line and it’s hard to imagine him still being the same kind of RB three years from now. Just something to think about. For now, though, the Browns are working on getting a new deal done for Jamal, and he should be back next year.

Which means that perhaps the only significant change on offense could be the 3rd WR. Tim Carter is a free agent, and I’m not sure the Browns are going to bring him back. They will need to decide if either Josh Cribbs or Travis Wilson are able to step into that role. I will say this about Cribbs…..the Browns were lucky to sign him to an extension last year. They have him locked up for only slightly more than the league minimum through 2012. It’s hard to imagine Cribbs being willing to return kicks, return punts, play on special teams, and be the main #3 WR all for little more than $500,000. I am only speculating, but you could potentially see a hold out for a restructured deal if Cribbs becomes the #3 WR next year, but that’s a story for another time. The Browns could also potentially look for another WR this offseason with Jurevicius saying he only plans on playing one more year and with so much uncertaintity in the #3 role. Will the Browns shell out money for a guy like Bernard Berrian or Patrick Crayton? Probably not, but a guy like Bryant Johnson or Drew Carter, or even maybe Justin Gage could be an interesting option for the Browns. The Browns remain paper thin at WR and are a Braylon Edwards injury away from lacking a serious threat at WR, so I’d be shocked if the Browns didn’t do something to bolster the WR group.

Otherwise, the offense is pretty well set at OL, TE, and FB. 2008 will be LeCharles Bentley’s last chance to play in a Cleveland Browns uniform, but it’s hard to predict what kind of role he could step into even if healthy. Will he supplant Hank Fraley, one of the leaders and captains of the offense, and take over at center? That’s hard to guess, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him share some time at right guard next year.

Defense

And here’s how the defense looks with 2008 salaries.

• DL
  • Robaire Smith (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
  • Orpheus Roye ($3 million; signed through 2008)
  • Simon Fraser (restricted free agent)
  • Bobby Hamilton (all terms undisclosed)
  • Shaun Smith (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
  • Ethan Kelley (free agent)
  • Ted Washington (free agent)
• LBs
  • D’Qwell Jackson ($515,000; signed through 2009)
  • Andra Davis ($3 million; signed through 2010)
  • Leon Williams ($445,000; signed through 2009)
  • Chaun Thompson (free agent)
  • Matt Stewart (free agent)
  • Kamerion Wimbley ($445,000; signed through 2010)
  • Willie McGinest ($2.9 million; signed through 2008)
  • Antwan Peek (terms undisclosed; signed through 2009)
  • David McMillan ($460,000; signed through 2008)
• CBs
  • Leigh Bodden ($1.7 million; signed through 2009)
  • Eric Wright (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
  • Daven Holly (restricted free agent)
  • Brandon McDonald (terms undisclosed; signed through 2010)
  • Gary Baxter ($3.5 million; signed through 2010)
• S
  • Brodney Pool ($603,250; signed through 2009)
  • Kenny Wright (terms undisclosed; signed through 2009)
  • Sean Jones ($545,000; signed through 2008)
  • Mike Adams (terms undisclosed; signed through 2008)
• P
  • Dave Zastudil ($1.2 million; signed through 2010)

The defensive side of the ball is where this team will look the most different in 2008. Radical changes will be needed along the defensive line. I wouldn’t expect to see Ted Washington next season. Instead, expect Shaun Smith to take over the NT position. Orpheus Roye has said he wants to come back for another year, and Robaire Smith will likely be in the mix at DE as well, but the Browns will be looking to bolster the position. If that means via free agency, and assuming Albert Haynesworth and Terrell Suggs return to the Titans and Ravens, then Jared Allen remains an intersting option. The Chiefs will try to keep him, and he has some off field questions that would scare some teams, but the Browns have shown that with due dilligence they are not afraid to sign players with checkered pasts if they believe they have fixed them. Plus, the Browns could have the cap space to make Allen a high enough offer to lure him away from KC. Other options could include Justin Smith and Mike Rucker. As always, you have to question players’ compatibility to the 3-4, but these are the free agent defensive linemen the Browns will have to choose from.

The linebackers probably don’t need too much attention. Leon Williams and Antwan Peek stepped up at moments this season to provide some depth behind the likes of McGinnest, Wimbley, Davis, and Jackson. The one to watch will be Chaun “Fast Linebacker” Thompson. Chaun is the last remaining icon of the Butch Davis draft folly. If he’s willing to return at a decent price, though, I think he can provide decent depth, especially on 3rd down passing situations. He could be worth bringing back.

In the secondary, the emergence of Brandon McDonald, along with Eric Wright’s development later in the season means that with Bodden the CB spot is probably ok for now. Sean Jones and Brodney Pool provide the team with a very athletic safety pairing and not much should change there. I would expect the secondary to look the same next year.

As a whole, the defense needs to get more pressure on the QB. The secondary can only do so much, and when you routinely give QBs all day in the pocket, even the most mediocre of NFL QBs will pick you apart. Beyond that, stopping the run on 1st down will need to get better. Most of these issues will improve if a pass rushing DE comes into the fold and the LBs can utilize blitz opportunities to confuse the OL just enough to get Kamerion Wimbley free on occasion.

Schedule

The 2008 schedule is going to be brutal. The Browns will have to play the AFC South and the NFC East next year, along with the 2nd place teams from the AFC West and East (Broncos and Bills). The home games will be against the Colts, Texans, Cowboys, Giants, and Broncos. The road games will be against the Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Redskins, and Bills. Add to this the fact that the Bengals have a good chance of rebounding in 2008 and the Steelers will still be the Steelers, and the 2008 schedule looks to be radically better than this year’s. This year, the Browns only beat one team with a winning record (Seattle). If the Browns are going to have an even better record next year, they will need to beat more teams with winning records than one.

Final Summary

Ok, this won’t be the last thing I write about the Browns. I can promise you I’ll be writing about any developments in the Lewis and DA situations as they happen. But as my final summary of this team for this post, I will just say that 2007 ended up being a great season. A valuable one, for sure. This has a chance to be remembered as the year the Browns finally learned how to win. They learned how to protect home field. They learned how to score points. They learned how to look like an NFL team. All these lessons are great and all, but unless they build on them and move forward, this season will serve as just another negative amongst many in the long history of the Browns. The time is now to stop looking for moral victories and to start looking for real victories and to move into the ranks of the NFL’s elite. If the Browns can’t win with this collection of weapons, then I don’t know what else I can write. I suppose in that case this team really is doomed to taunt us forever. But I refuse to think in those terms. I am absolutely optimistic that this team is going to be a force in the next couple years, and as long as Phil Savage is able to continue drafting wisely and adding big pieces through free agency this team is going to finally step up and compete in the playoffs very, very soon.

 

The Future Forecast Of The Browns

Looking For Clues To The 2008 Cleveland Browns

Ok, first things first….no, I am NOT writing off the 2007 Browns season. I’m still cautiously optimistic in the power of Jim Sorgi to send the Browns into the playoffs (something DA couldn’t do against the NFL’s 25th ranked pass defense). No, I am NOT writing off DA. I still think he has the potential to be a top 8 or so NFL quarterback. No, I am NOT on the Brady Quinn bandwagon. We have not seen the guy take one single real NFL snap. We have no clue what kind of player he will be.

All that being said, I have some time off this week from my paying job, so I decided to do some research for my non-paying job. My interest in this topic was sparked by reader Shane, who posted in the comments section on an earlier post a story on the site profootballtalk.com claiming that Bill Parcells will be interested in giving up the Dolphins’ draft picks to acquire DA in the offseason in an attempt to expedite the Dolphins’ turnaround. Now, I have never heard of profootballtalk.com and I have no idea how legit this report is, but Shane was right in that I did indeed enjoy the story because it sparked my curiosity. It got me to wondering what every team’s QB outlook for 2008 looks like, and accordingly, which teams would even consider trading for either DA or Brady Quinn.

So what I’ve done is looked at the QB situation of every team in the NFL, compared it to their draft position (as of now), and made my best guess as to whether or not each team would consider making a move for one of the Browns’ QBs in the upcoming season. Again, it’s important for me to emphasize that I am not saying that the Browns will be looking to trade either QB. I do not think that is the case at all. I believe it is the Browns’ preference to head into 2008 with both QBs on the roster. But will any teams make an offer to the Browns? It’s possible. Will a team give up their 1st and 3rd round picks to sign DA? It’s possible. That’s all I’m considering. From these other teams’ points of view, will they even consider making a move for one of the Browns’ QBs? Take this FWIW and have fun with it.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys:

QBs on Roster: Tony Romo (2008 Salary: $6 million; Signed Through: 2013) – QB Score per Play (rank): 3.37 (2)

Other QBs: Brad Johnson

Projected Draft Position: 30-31 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: No interest. None. They already have the Browns’ first round pick, and they have this guy named Tony Romo. Safe to say, they’re content with their current QB situation.

New York Giants:

QBs on Roster: Eli Manning (2008 Salary: $8.45 million; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.12 (25)

Other QBs: Anthony Wright, Jared Lorenzen

Projected Draft Position: 24-27 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: For better or worse, the Giants are stuck with Manning. Despite consistently poor QB play this season, the Giants are still in the playoffs again this year, and with a significant financial contribution to Manning through 2009, there’s no reason for the Giants to be making trades to bring in other QBs. Just not gonna happen. The Giants will be sticking with Eli Manning.

Philadelphia Eagles:

QBs on Roster: Donovan McNabb (2008 Salary: $6.3 million; Signed Through: 2013) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.08 (14)

Other QBs: AJ Feely, Kevin Kolb

Projected Draft Position: 13-18 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: The Eagles are a curious team to figure out. Publicly, everyone is putting on a happy face, but there have been numerous reports from behind the scenes stating that both the team and the QB feel that it’s time for them to part ways and head in a new direction. McNabb has actually played at an above average level this season, and will be an interesting piece to the QB puzzle this offseason. Rumors are flying about a possible trade sending McNabb back to his hometown of Chicago. With AJ Feely playing well in place of McNabb at times this season, and with Kevin Kolb being the heir apparent to the Philly QB throne, it could indeed be possible that this is McNabb’s final season in the city of brotherly hate. What does this have to do with the Browns? Not a lot directly. Philly will not be giving up draft picks to get either Quinn or DA. The McNabb impact will come into play as teams will consider whether it would be better to trade for McNabb or one of the Browns’ QBs. This will be a team to watch in the off season.

Washington Redskins:

QBs on Roster: Jason Campbell (2008 Salary: $635,000; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.65 (18)

Other QBs: Todd Collins, Mark Brunell

Projected Draft Position: 19-20 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: Fighting for a playoff spot, the Washington Redskins find themselves in a bit of a QB controversy all their own, with the excellent play of Todd Collins of late in place of the injured Jason Campbell, who was believed to be the Redskins’ QB of the future. If Collins can lead the team into the playoffs with a win over Dallas this weekend, and even possibly win a playoff game, then thing will get real interesting in Washington. Needless to say, with all this going on, the last thing they need is to introduce yet another QB into this equation. So no, they will have no interest in the Browns’ QBs.

NFC North

Chicago Bears:

QBs on Roster: Rex Grossman (2008 Salary: Free Agent) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.56 (31)
Brian Griese (2008 Salary: $1.4 million + $300,000 roster bonus; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.58 (22)

Other QBs: Kyle Orton

Projected Draft Position: 9-12 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: The defending NFC Champions have themselves a QB mess. Do they re-sign Rex Grossman and give him another chance? That seems unlikely given the simply awful play he’s given them the past couple seasons. Do they give Griese his roster bonus and bring him back to be the starter? At this point, it’s hard to fathom how that could even be a consideration for a team looking to get back into the ranks of the NFC elite. Do they hand over the team to Kyle Orton? No chance. The Bears are a team who will be looking to make a splash at QB this off season. They will inquire about Donovan McNabb, and you can bet they will inquire about Quinn. If the Browns do not sign DA to a long term deal and just give him the max tender, the Bears will at least weigh whether or not DA would be worth the cost. No matter how you look at it, the Bears will be a major player in the QB market this off season as it is their #1 most pressing need.

Detroit Lions:

QBs on Roster: Jon Kitna (2008 Salary: $1.95 million; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.88 (17)

Other QBs: J.T. O’Sullivan, Dan Orlovsky

Projected Draft Position: 13-18 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: Ah yes, the Lions. Jon Kitna made his bold prediction before this season that the Lions would win 10 games year. At 6-2, his prediction looked like it was coming true right before our eyes. 6 straight loses later, and the Lions were 6-8 before finally getting another win last week. They still have a chance to finish .500, and no matter what happens, the Lions were an improved team this year. I’d expect them to focus their off season on the defensive side of the ball and they will likely ride Kitna another year. They would probably love to add a guy like Quinn to take over for Kitna after this season (remember the excellent job Kitna did tutoring Carson Palmer), and maybe they will ask the Browns what it would take. Assuming the Browns are looking to get back into the first round of this draft, it’s just hard to see how the Lions could justify giving up a top 15ish draft pick for a luxury of a future QB when they have so many other more immediate needs on defense. I would consider the Lions to be a team with very mild interest in Quinn.

Minnesota Vikings:

QBs on Roster: Tarvaris Jackson (2008 Salary: $445,000; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.62 (19)

Other QBs: Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb

Projected Draft Position: 20-21 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: The Vikings will be a surprise player in the QB market this off season. This is a team on the rise, who with some help from Dallas can still find their way into the playoffs this year. Despite really not playing all that poorly this season, the Vikings are not sold on Tarvaris Jackson and will look for ways to improve their QB play next season. That being said, there is still talk that the Vikings do indeed like Jackson’s potential upside and perhaps they will be looking for a veteran to let Jackson get more seasoning underneath for a couple years. If that’s the case, the Vikings will enter the Donovan McNabb market. If they decide that Jackson just isn’t going to be their guy in the future, then they will at least ponder entering the DA market. With a fairly low draft pick anyway, they would conceivably at least consider making a move for DA. With a solid QB, it’s downright scary to think how good the Vikings could be with rookie sensation Adrian Peterson and with a stellar run defense. The Vikings will almost certainly look to get better QB play next season, one way or the other.

Green Bay Packers:

QBs on Roster: Brett Favre (2008 Salary: $12 million; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 3.30 (3)

Other QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Craig Nall

Projected Draft Position: 29

Prediction: With legendary Brett Favre playing some of the best football of his life, there’s really no reason for him to retire yet. But even should he choose to retire, the Packers have their guy in Aaron Rodgers, who showed a little of what he’s capable of doing when Favre went down with an injury against Dallas this season. So in a nutshell, the Packers have no interest in messing with their QB situation right now.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons:

QBs on Roster: Joey Harrington (2008 Salary: $2.5 million; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play: 1.61 (20)

Other QBs: Chris Redman, Byron Leftwich

Projected Draft Position: 2-4 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: The Falcons are the team with that 10,000 pound gorilla in the room (Mike Vick). It’s not an easy thing to overcome when you lose the face of your franchise just before the season. Adding to their frustration was the fact that they traded away prized backup Matt Schaub in the off season, leaving them perennial disappointment Joey Harrington and washed up Byron Leftwich as their only viable options this season. Leftwich was a disaster and Harrington played his typical frustrating self. The Falcons must address their QB situation this off season. The problem is, their draft pick is too high to trade to the Browns for either DA or Quinn. So while the Falcons are definitely in the market for a QB, it’s tough to see them giving up a top 4 pick for Derek Anderson.

Carolina Panthers:

QBs on Roster: Vinny Testaverde (2008 Salary: Free Agent)
Jake Delhomme (2008 Salary: $3.69 million; Signed Through: 2009)

Other QBs: Matt Moore, David Carr

Projected Draft Position: 9-12

Prediction: The Carolina Panthers served as the 2007 example of why QB depth is a premium luxury in the NFL, and why the Browns’ first choice will be to keep both DA and Brady on the team next season. As it is, looking ahead to the future for the Carolina franchise, it can be a bit tough to predict. Do they have any confidence in David Carr? Who is Matt Moore? Does Jake Delhomme have anything left? Will they bring Vinny back for his 100th NFL season? Honestly, I think the Panthers qualify as another team that would not really want DA, but would love to bring in Quinn and let him learn under Delhomme for a year or two before taking over. Are they interested enough to give up a 10-15 pick? It’s not impossible, but it’s also not likely.

New Orleans Saints:

QBs on Roster: Drew Brees (2008 Salary: $4.8 million; Signed Through: 2011) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.55 (10)

Other QBs: Jamie Martin

Projected Draft Position: 14-19

Prediction: No interest at all. Despite getting off to about as horrible of a start as you could, Drew Brees recovered in a big way and is still currently in the top 10 in the NFL in QB Score per Play. He’s the man for now in New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

QBs on Roster: Jeff Garcia (2008 Salary: $2 million; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.82 (7)

Other QBs: Luke McCown, Bruce Gradkowski, Chris Simms

Projected Draft Position: 22-24

Prediction: One of the best kept secrets in the NFL this season has been just how stellar Jeff Garcia has been (gulp). He has played out of his mind this season, and has the Bucs back in the playoffs. Still under contract for another season, it seems unlikely that Tampa will look to make any major moves regarding their QB position right now. Perhaps they might draft a QB this year to setup the future, but you don’t get the sense that this is a team that has any interest in trading a 1st round pick for a QB like DA or Quinn.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals:

QBs on Roster: Kurt Warner (2008 Salary: $4 million; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.04 (15)
Matt Leinart: (2008 Salary: $735,000; Signed Through: 2011)

Other QBs: Tim Rattay, Tim (Husband of Elisabeth) Hasselbeck

Projected Draft Position: 14-19 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: With Kurt Warner still playing slightly above average football and with Matt Leinart still looking to show his potential, the Cardinals have no interest in the Browns’ QBs.

San Francisco 49ers:

QBs on Roster: Alex Smith (2008 Salary: $2.3 million + $8 million buy-back; Singed Through: 2011)
Shaun Hill (2008 Salary: Free Agent)
Tren Dilfer (2008 Salary: $1 million + $500,000 roster bonus; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play (rank): -0.70 (33)

Other QBs: Chris Weinke

Projected Draft Position: 9

Prediction: Under Shaun Hill, the 49ers have gone from a team looking to fight for the #1 draft pick to a team who is trying to end the season on a 3 game win streak. Which really makes you wonder…will the 49ers really pick up the $8 million buy-back on former #1 overall pick Alex Smith? I’ve seen no indication otherwise, but it’s so hard for me to imagine putting over $10 million into a QB next season who has never really shown you much of anything. Why not pick up the $500k bonus on Dilfer’s contract and keep him around another year to help groom Shaun Hill if need be, and give this Hill kid a shot to be the man? Granted, Hill is about to turn 28 in January and has never shown anything in the NFL, but in the 3 games he’s played for SF he has been solid and shown some small potential. Regardless, until I hear otherwise, I will assume the Niners are sticking with Alex Smith and will sink a ton of money into him to keep him around, thus removing them as a player for the Browns’ QBs.

St. Louis Rams:

QBs on Roster: Marc Bulger (2008 Salary: $7 million; Signed Through: 2013) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.79 (29)

Other QBs: Gus Frerotte, Brock Berlin, Todd Bouman

Projected Draft Position: 2-4 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: No matter how you look at it, 2007 was a disappointing season for the Rams. More than just disappointing, you could also call it underachieving. The Rams have some explosive talent on offense. Injuries slowed down Marc Bulger as he tried to play with broken and bruised ribs this season. Assuming he can bounce back next year, the Rams will be fine at QB and on offense in general. Look for them to hang on tight to that top 5 pick and use it on the best defensive player available. They will have zero interest in making any kind of deal with the Browns.

Seattle Seahawks:

QBs on Roster: Matt (Not Married To Elisabeth) Hasselbeck (2008 Salary: $5.75 million; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.37 (12)

Other QBs: Seneca Wallace, Chuck Frye

Projected Draft Position: 25-28

Prediction: Hasselbeck has been his usual solid self this season, the Seahawks had a solid season so far, and they already took in Chuck Frye. No chance that they look to bring in DA or BQ.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills:

QBs on Roster: Trent Edwards (2008 Salary: Terms Unknown; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.94 (16)
J.P. Losman (2008 Salary: $645,000; Signed Through: 2008)

Other QBs: Gibran Hamdan

Projected Draft Position: 14-19 (depending on tie breaker)

Prediction: All indications seem to be that the Bills are happy with Trent Edwards and now see him, and not J.P. Losman, as their QB of the future. With both Losman and Edwards due to be on the roster in 2008, the Bills will not be looking at adding a QB in this offseason.

Miami Dolphins:

QBs on Roster: Cleo Lemon (2008 Salary: Free Agent) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.07 (26)

Other QBs: John Beck (2008 Salary: $370,000; Signed Through: 2010), Trent Green

Projected Draft Position: 1

Prediction: The Dolphins are the team that started this whole post. It’s easy to see why they will be looking for a QB. Trent Green has been completely unable to stay healthy and on the field, and may yet retire from the NFL. Cleo Lemon has been underwhelmin and is a free agent anyway. In limited action, rookie John Beck has thrown 0 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. And then there’s the new sheriff in town, the Big Tuna himself, Bill Parcells. Parcells is not a patient man, and he will want to make a big splash to make his impact and influence felt immediately throughout the Miami organization. Will that really mean giving up their first overall pick in the draft for Derek Anderson? Gosh, it’s just so hard to imagine that. Were DA in the draft pool this year, even with this season under his belt, it’s still hard to picture DA being the #1 overall pick. Obviously the Browns would go for it in a heartbeat if Mr. Tuna offered it, but I’m guessing that doesn’t happen. If the Browns still had their 1st round pick, maybe it would work. But why would the Dolphins want to drop out of the first round of the draft altogether? It just doesn’t make any sense. Look for Miami to address the position via draft, free agency, or by bringing in a low cost veteran like Chad Pennington to hold things over for a year. Do not expect a deal to be done with the Browns, no matter what profootballtalk.com says.

New England Patriots:

QBs on Roster: Tom Brady (2008 Salary: $5 million + $3 million roster bonus; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 4.19 (1)

Other QBs: Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez

Projected Draft Position: 32

Prediction: Are you serious?

New York Jets:

QBs on Roster: Kellen Clemens (2008 Salary: $445,000; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.93 (28)
Chad Pennington (2008 Salary: $4.8 million; Signed Through: 2011) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.42 (23)

Other QBs: Marques Tuiasosopo

Projected Draft Position: 3-5

Prediction: The Jets like this Clemens kid. Sure, Pennington actually performed slightly better this season, but the difference is marginal enough that it makes sense for the Jets to cut Pennington and go with Clemens, especially when you consider that due to his restructured deal, Pennington’s cap charge is actually $7.8 million. Again, a team just isn’t going to give up a top 5 pick for DA and especially not for Quinn, so my best guess is that the Jets try to trade Pennington in the offseason (perhaps to the Tuna in Miami) and will give Kellen Clemens a full year to prove he can handle the starting job.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens:

QBs on Roster: Kyle Boller (2008 Salary: $2 million; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.94 (27)
Steve McNair (2008 Salary: $4 million; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.23 (32)

Other QBs: Troy Smith

Projected Draft Position: 6-8

Prediction: You gotta love the QB mess the Ravens always seem to find themselves in. Troy Smith isn’t ready to be a starter yet, Kyle Boller has been wildly inaccurate and frankly awful his entire career, and Steve McNair is old and broken. 2007 was a horrible year for Baltimore, and a good portion of that stems from their QB play. With Boller and McNair still under contract, it’s unlikely much will change there. I’d expect them to give McNair one more year to prove he can still play and Boller one more year as a backup before they can finally get rid of him. Then, it will be Troy Smith’s turn to either prove he can play or be relegated to the bench for a long, long time. As bleak as it is, there’s no way they would even consider giving up a top 10 pick to the Browns to re-acquire a QB they foolishly let go for free anyway. Nothing is going to happen here between these two teams.

Cincinnati Bengals:

QBs on Roster: Carson Palmer (2008 Salary: $7.75 million; Signed Through: 2014) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.44 (11)

Other QBs: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Rowe

Projected Draft Position: 10-13

Prediction: Carson Palmer regressed a bit this season for the first time in his young NFL career……..and he still has a chance to finish in the top 10 in the NFL in QB Score per Play this season. That’s how good Carson Palmer is. I would be scared of this talented Bengals team having this high of a draft pick, but who am I kidding….we all have seen how horrible the Bengals’ first round draft picks have been (with the exception of Palmer). Anyway, that’s beside the point. The Bengals are set at QB. No interest there.

Cleveland Browns:

QBs on Roster: Derek Anderson (2008 Salary: Restricted Free Agent) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.72 (8)

Other QBs: Brady Quinn, Ken Dorsey

Projected Draft Position: 22-24

Prediction: Ok, so I just put the Browns in here so everyone could see how DA ranks this season amongst QBs and so you can see how nicely the Browns are setup at QB. I sure do wish they had that first round draft pick, though.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

QBs on Roster: Ben Roethlisberger (2008 Salary: $1.365 million; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.33 (13)

Other QBs: Charlie Batch, Brian St. Pierre

Projected Draft Position: 25-28

Prediction: Big Ben has already won a Super Bowl, has had a great season this year, and had the Steelers as potential AFC contenders (if you forget about NE for a second) prior to Fast Willie Parker’s injury. The Steelers are thrilled with him, he seems happy to be there. No reason for change there any time soon. No interest in the Browns.

AFC South

Houston Texans:

QBs on Roster: Matt Schaub (2008 Salary: Terms Unknown; Signed Through: 2012) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.61 (9)

Other QBs: Sage Rosenfels, Shane Boyd

Projected Draft Position: 14-19

Prediction: This is another easy one. After making the move to acquire Schaub in the offseason, and with the way he has provided results, the Texans are quite content at QB for the time being.

Indianapolis Colts:

QBs on Roster: Peyton Manning (2008 Salary: $11.5 million; Signed Through: 2012) – QB Score per Play (rank): 3.10 (4)

Other QBs: Jim Sorgi

Projected Draft Position: 30-31

Prediction: See New England Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars:

QBs on Roster: David Garrard (2008 Salary: $1.25 million; Signed Through: 2008) – QB Score per Play (rank): 3.09 (5)

Other QBs: Quinn Gray

Projected Draft Position: 28-29

Prediction: This has been an absolute breakout season for Garrard. In general, the AFC South is probably about the most stable division in terms of starting QBs with Schaub, Manning, Garrard, and Vince Young. Expect the Jags to try to work on an extension for Garrard in the offseason. They will have no interest in the Browns’ QBs.

Tennessee Titans:

QBs on Roster: Vince Young (2008 Salary: $1.5 million; Signed Through: 2011) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.33 (24)

Other QBs: Kerry Collins

Projected Draft Position: 22-24

Prediction: Vince showed his growing pains this season, and struggled for much of the season. None the less, the Titans are a win against the Colts this week away from being back in the playoffs. Vince has been a winner at every level, and Tennessee has no reason to doubt that he can win at this level, too. The Titans will not be interested in the Browns.

AFC West

Denver Broncos:

QBs on Roster: Jay Cutler (2008 Salary: $647,500; Signed Through: 2011) – QB Score per Play (rank): 2.84 (6)

Other QBs: Patrick Ramsey, Darrell Hackney

Projected Draft Position: 10-13

Prediction: If Jeff Garcia was this season’s best kept secret, then Jay Cutler was 2nd on that list. He has had an outstanding season, being topped in QB Score per Play only by Brady, Romo, Favre, Manning, and Garrard. With Cutler’s development, the Bronco’s future looks bright, and they have no need to look at other QB options.

Kansas City Chiefs:

QBs on Roster: Damon Huard (2008 Salary: $1.75 million; Signed Through: 2009) – QB Score per Play (rank): 0.77 (30)

Other QBs: Brodie Croyle

Projected Draft Position: 6-8

Prediction: Honestly, I think the Chiefs are a team that would consider making a move for DA. Both Croyle and Huard have been awful, and both are gone after 2009. They’re going nowhere with these guys. The Chiefs will look at McNabb, DA, and the draft pool. Of course, it’s always possible that they could make no change and stay the course for next season, but if you were the GM of the Chiefs, how could you not look at all your options and consider ways to improve your QBs?

Oakland Raiders:

QBs on Roster: JaMarcus Russell (2008 Salary: $3.72 million; Signed Through: 2012)

Other QBs: Josh McCown (free agent), Daunte Culpepper (free agent), Andrew Walter

Projected Draft Position: 6-8

Prediction: They have their guy for now in JaMarcus Russell. Despite having little depth behind him, they can’t give up a top 10 pick just to try to get some backup help. Look for them to sign a veteran to backup Russell next season.

San Diego Chargers:

QBs on Roster: Philip Rivers (2008 Salary: $1.265 million; Signed Through: 2010) – QB Score per Play (rank): 1.60 (21)

Other QBs: Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst

Projected Draft Position: 25-28

Prediction: For better or worse, they made their bed and now have to lie in it. They made their choice when they let Drew Brees go and annointed Philip Rivers as the new guy. Brees has gone on to be one of the better QBs in the NFL while Rivers has been erratic and inconsistent while struggling at times to get along with teammates. That being said, the Chargers are stuck with him and they did go 14-2 with him last year and are headed back to the playoffs this year, so it’s not all bad. As long as the team is winning and going to the playoffs, they will not be considering any other QB options.

Summary

First off, here are the free agents this offseason at QB: Derek Anderson, Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, Josh McCown, Quinn Gray, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Henson, Cleo Lemon, Jared Lorenzen, and Jamie Martine. If a team is looking to sign a big free agent QB, they just aren’t out there to be had. DA is the best option. Which is why he will be an intriguing option for teams desperate to bolster their QB stable.

Here are Mel Kiper’s top QBs in the draft as of now: Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco, Colt Brennan, and Andre Woodson. Scouts, Inc ranks the top 10 QBs as: Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, Dennis Dixon, John David Booty, Joshua Johnson, Colt Brennan, and Eric Ainge. Are any of these guys going to take over right away and be franchise QBs? It’s so hard to say. How can anyone really ever predict these things? It’s such a volatile marketplace.

Which goes to why I believe DA has to be an interesting option for teams. You’ve at least seen what you’re getting with DA. The rest of the free agents are either old or underproducing. The draft picks are a crapshoot. If I were a GM and knew I was going to be drafting a QB in the 1st round, I would give some serious consideration to just giving up the pick to sign DA. A lot would depend on my draft position, but I would have to give it due dilligence and at least look into it. Hopefully this list will give you something to think about as we consider which teams will be thinking about making a run for one of the Browns’ QBs.

 

Week 16 Recap

Browns Turnover Control Of Their Own Destiny To Tennessee

What’s the operative word of the day to describe this game? Debacle? Choke-job? Disgraceful? Unfocused? Unprepared? Lackadaisical? Pretty much any of these words, and any similar ones you might think of pretty much sums up the pathetic performance the Browns put forth against the Bengals in Cincinnati yesterday, falling 19-14. More importantly, the Browns surrendered control of their own destiny. It rendered this week’s game against San Francisco completely meaningless, as now the Browns simply need Tennessee to lose to the Colts. Titans win, they’re in…Colts win, Browns are in. Peyton Manning just picked up a lot of new fans for a week.

Going back to this Bengals game, you often hear teams say their opponents didn’t beat them, that they beat themselves. Normally, I think that’s a bunch of junk. But in this case, you can kind of understand it. The Bengals showed why they’re having such a down year, being unable to score any 2nd half points to cushion their 19-0 halftime lead. In the last 2 minutes of the 1st half, Derek Anderson threw 2 interceptions (1 because his intended receiver, Jason Wright, decided to duck out of the way of the ball rather than catch it…the other because of an absolutely terrible throw in which DA tried to do too much to make up for his earlier turnover), both of which the Bengals were able to capitalize on and score TDs to push the midway lead from 6-0 to 19-0. That was the difference in the game.

The Browns would make a run at it in the 2nd half, despite 2 more redzone interceptions by Derek Anderson. On 2 other occasions, DA would find Braylon Edwards for a TD, bringing the score to 19-14. Then, on the final Browns possession, DA found Braylon right away for a quick 40 yard gain into Cincinnati territory…….only to have it called on a phantom offensive pass interference call. I’m not sure what, exactly, the refs saw on that play, but I suppose they just assumed since Braylon was so open at such a critical moment in the game, that he MUST have pushed off or something. That’s the only thing I can figure at this point. After having that play called back, the Browns tried to move the ball down the field by making a series of 10 yard passes into the middle of the field, killing the clock and taking their jolly time along the way. It was one of the worst 2 minute offense executions I have ever seen. In the end, it left the Browns with one chance to lob the ball into the end zone, and even then DA could only muster a half hearted throw in the general vicinity of K2. All in all, it was a miserable game in which the Browns looked overwhelmingly tight with the pressure of what was riding on this game.

The positives of this game were few and far between. Jamal Lewis had a decent game, going for 92 yards on 21 carries for a 4.4 yards/carry average. Had the Browns not found themselves in a 19 point hole, Lewis obviously would have had another big game against the Bengals. K2 and Braylon each had nice games. Not great games, but nice games. The Browns 2nd half defense played excellent, coming up with big turnovers in huge moments when the team needed them the most. They made Carson Palmer look pretty pedestrian for 99% of the game (Palmer still made an amazing throw on TJ Whosyomomma’s TD).

The negatives….You have to start with Derek Anderson.  You can’t help but feel like had DA thrown JUST three interceptions instead of four, the Browns would have won this game. It’s just too hard to overcome the damage of 4 interceptions, especially when the defense quickly allows 2 of them to turn into 13 points in the span of 30 seconds. Which brings us to negative #2, the Browns’ first half defense, in particular the rush defense. This unit was totally ineffective at stopping the run, allowing Kenny Watson to put up 99 yards rushing in the first half alone. Furthermore, even in the 4th quarter when the Browns needed the ball back and they knew full well the Bengals would be running the ball to run out the clock, the Browns showed no ability to stop them at all, no matter how many guys were loaded into the box. Only a fortunate fumble allowed the Browns to get the ball back without the Bengals putting any more points on the board. Finally, negative #3 from this game, the coaching. It was bad enough that the team came out looking this flat and this uninspired and this overwhelmed. But the worst coaching decision of the day, in my opinion, was the decision to go for it on 4th and a long 1 from the Bengals’ 19 yard line in the first half after a Leigh Bodden interception. The Browns got stopped for no gain on the play and had to turnover the ball. I understand that it was windy and that they had already botched their first field goal hold, but if you can go for a 49 yard field goal in the midst of a blinding blizzard last week, I fail to see why you can’t attempt a 36 yard field goal yesterday. Phil Dawson has come up huge for this team time and again all season, and had he made that field goal, who knows how differently the game might have turned out with the Browns only needing a FG on the last possession to tie the game (I’m going to go ahead and assume the Bengals would have kicked the PAT rather than go for 2 if the score was 19-3 rather than 19-0). Although, in retrospect, I suppose it doesn’t really matter if Romeo Crennel is scared to kick a 36 yard FG, who knows how close the Browns would have had to have gotten before Romeo would have allowed them to try to tie the game.

At the end of the day, this was just a poor effort on the Browns’ part. Kudos to the Bengals, they won, but that was not a football team that scares anyone. Had the Browns played the way they have the last few weeks (not stellar, but average), you can’t help but feel like they would have walked out of Paul Brown Stadium (ugh) a winner. So now, we sit through this Christmas season waiting and hoping for a belated Christmas present in the form of a Browns playoff spot.

 

The Jamal Lewis Question

Jamal Lewis having big season, but does this warrant big money over big years?

Jamal Lewis has been everything the Browns were hoping he could be, and then some. The questions over what Jamal had left in the tank coming into this season were fair. After all, despite being young in years, he was old in experience. In an offensive system in Baltimore that never featured a QB capable of being anything more than a game manager, Jamal was heavily used in Baltimore, and with no threat of a passing game, opposing defenses ganged up on Jamal. When you add this to Jamal’s natural bruising, overpowering running style, it adds up to a lot of hard mileage. It’s like the difference between a car with 50,000 highway miles and a car with 50,000 inner city stop and go miles.

The Ravens were doubtful enough of Jamal’s skills that they moved on to Plan B and brought in Willis McGahee and let Jamal Lewis walk out the door. The Browns, desperate for a feature back, decided to sign Jamal to a one year deal and let him prove that there was still life in him. The move has paid major dividends for both the Browns and Jamal. The Browns have been able to ride Jamal’s late season resurgance into a  possible playoff run. Jamal, meanwhile, has been able to prove that he can still be an integral part of a playoff caliber team.

Jamal has proven to be an old school hard nosed RB in the mold of the great RBs in Browns history. He has endeared himself to the fans, and the fans have endeared themselves to Jamal. Of the Browns fans, Jamal has said,

“I love the fans here. They’re totally different [than in Baltimore].”

“Just due to the history they have here with the Browns. The history goes way back and you can tell. They are louder, but just the fan support period. Being on the road, you see a lot of Browns jerseys in the stands. We need that support.

“It translates [to the field] because we want to go out and play hard and win. It’s great. That’s what we owe our home record to.”

This Browns-Jamal marriage is starting to look like a perfect match. But the real question is, should the Browns sign Jamal to a long term deal after this season? Phil Savage has his work cut out on this one.

Jamal has said recently that he’s be perfectly content signing a string of 1 year deals to keep playing for the Browns. The Plain Dealer’s Bud Shaw, though, isn’t so sure he really would, writing:

“Negotiations with Jamal Lewis can’t be as easy as he made them sound recently when he suggested coming to terms was no more complicated than a page out of a children’s book.

See Jamal run. See Jamal sign.

Quoth the ex-Raven: “Hey, I’ll do one-year deals all day long.”

If this were true, of course, Phil Savage would tell Lewis to pick a day, any day.

Today’s not good for you, Jamal? Then how about tomorrow?

Morning. Noon. Night. Three a.m. Just call ahead.

Savage would send a car. All he’d ask is for Lewis to tell the driver to step on it and don’t stop if Lewis’ agent stands in front of the limo like that protester in Tiananmen Square.

Lewis says he isn’t necessarily looking for a one-year deal. No one would. But he wouldn’t flat reject it. All in all, he trusts his agent will put him in the best position.

There’s always that catch.”

I’m not so sure it’s quite that simple. Sure, if Jamal wants a one year deal, the Browns would give it to him. But part of the GM’s job is also to look at the team’s future. The Browns can’t afford to be caught with their pants down if Jamal were to suffer a serious injury or if he were to no longer be productive next season.

No matter how you look at it, Jamal is having a big year. In terms of RB Score (after Week 14), Jamal ranks 11th in the NFL in RB Score per game. Using Football Outsiders’ metric DPAR (defense-adjusted points above replacement), Jamal ranks a surprisingly low 19th in the NFL. But if you go by the only stat that really matters, rushing yards, Jamal is 7th in the NFL with 1,084 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He is on pace to finish with 1,239 yards, making this his best season since his Herculean 2003 season in which he rushed for an astounding 2,066 yards.

Some legit questions remain, though. Perhaps his low DPAR ranking is telling us something. If you look further, prior to rushing for over 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, Jamal had only topped the century mark once, Week 2 against the Bengals. Another concern with signing Jamal to a long term deal is his high number of career rushing attempts. Despite being only 28 years old, Jamal is already 28th in NFL history in attempts with 2,073 carries, just ahead of Roger Craig, Gerald Riggs, and Herschel Walker. Granted, LaDainian Tomlinson is ahead of him in carries and shows no sign of slowing down, but the only other active RBs with more carries are all guys well past their prime (Edgerrin James, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, and Shaun Alexander). The active RBs just behind are also mostly guys past their prime (Ahman Green, Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Pittman). The fact of the matter is, rushing attempts are historically a pretty good way to gauge how much a RB has left, and Jamal is in the company of guys who are running out of gas.

Of course, if the Browns are really going to even think about not re-signing Jamal, there needs to be a replacement in mind. With no first round draft pick and the need to draft defensive players anyway, the Browns would need to turn to the Unrestricted Free Agent market (because the Browns do not have a 1st round pick, they cannot sign a Restricted Free Agent as they lack the required compensation). The top UFA’s next year will be Michael Turner, Julius Jones, Fred Taylor, Justin Fargas, and Chris Brown. The question is, which of those guys would you rather have than Jamal Lewis next year?

The only RBs that I think the Browns would consider would be Fred Taylor and Michael Turner. First off, Taylor probably isn’t going anywhere. It’s hard to fathom Jacksonville not hanging onto him for another year (despite the emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew). Michael Turner is going to be the desired prize of every team in the free agent market. He is going to carry a heavy price tag, despite the fact he has not proven he can be a feature back and carry the load by himself.

Ultimately, with no sure fire alternatives, I would expect the Browns to try to sign Jamal to a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year. This will give the Browns a relatively affordable option at RB who will give the team some stability while they look for the long term solution at that position. There’s no real reason not to bring Jamal back at least for one more year. The Browns will almost certainly talk to Michael Turner and see what kind of deal it will take to sign him, but with such a shallow RB pool, I think his price tag will be too high for the Browns. The bottom line is, I expect to see Jamal as the Brown’s starting RB next season.

 

ROBBED!

Several Browns Players Unjustly Left Off Pro Bowl Roster

The NFL has announced the Pro Bowl rosters. In typical Cleveland fashion, key members of the 9-5 Browns team were left off the team.

Starting with who DID make it, WR Braylon Edwards is a reserve and KR Josh Cribbs made it. That’s it. Inexplicably left out were Eric Steinbach, Joe Thomas, and Kellen Winslow.  Vic Carucci thinks Derek Anderson should have made it also.

I complained a few weeks ago about the fans’ voting. I never imagined the players and coaches voting would be even more insane. More later once I’ve collected my thoughts on this injustice.

Congrats to Braylon and Josh, though.